The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, retracing its recent gains from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair loses ground as the AUD struggles following the release of Australia’s employment data.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Thursday that the Employment Change came in at 14.9K in September, against the market expectations of 17K. The previous reading was -11.8K (revised from -5.4K). Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.5%, jumping to a near four-year high. The figure came in above the market consensus and the previous 4.3%.
The Aussie Dollar attracts some sellers as weaker jobs data quickly boosted the chance of a November cut in the 3.65% cash rate to 76%, from under 50% prior.
RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent spoke at the CFA Society Australia Investment Conference 2025 late Wednesday that financial conditions are less restrictive after recent rate cuts. Kent also added that the cash rate is now within a wide, uncertain neutral range, with the central bank reassessing its outlook with incoming data and risks.
The AUD received support from the cautious remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, who said on Wednesday that recent data has been a little stronger than expected, adding that inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in the third quarter (Q3). Hunter highlighted that uncertainty about the global outlook remains elevated and stated that the board will adjust policy as appropriate as new information comes to hand. Expected consumer momentum to soften a little in Q3, she added.
US Dollar holds losses as traders adopt caution due to US-China feud
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the third successive session and trading around 98.50 at the time of writing. The US Dollar continues to weaken as traders adopt caution amid escalating United States (US)-China trade tensions, the world’s two largest economies.
- US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he saw the US as in a trade war with China, even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed a longer pause on high tariffs on Chinese goods to resolve a conflict over critical minerals.
- The Greenback faced challenges after US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell stated on Tuesday that the central bank is on track to deliver another quarter-point interest-rate reduction later this month, even as a government shutdown significantly reduces its read on the economy. Powell highlighted the low pace of hiring and noted that it may weaken further.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are now pricing in nearly a 98% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and a 93% possibility of another reduction in December.
- China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.3% year-over-year (YoY) in September. The market consensus was for a 0.1% decline in the reported period, following a fall of 0.4% in August. Meanwhile, the monthly inflation rose to 0.1%, weaker than the expected 0.2%. China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 2.3% YoY, following a 2.9% fall prior, as expected.
- China’s Trade Balance arrived at CNY645.47 billion in September, narrowing from the previous figure of CNY732.7 billion. Exports rose 8.4% YoY in September vs. 4.8% in July. The country’s imports advanced 7.5% YoY in the same period vs. 1.7% recorded previously. In US Dollar (USD) terms, China’s Trade Surplus came at $90.45 billion, expanded less than expected $98.96 billion in September, and was down from the previous $102.33.
- The RBA Minutes of its September monetary policy meeting showed on Monday that board members agreed that policy was still a little restrictive but difficult to determine. The RBA Meeting Minutes also noted that economic risks persist, with consumption remaining weak amid softer job and wage growth. Monthly CPI data for housing and services suggest that Q3 inflation may exceed forecasts. The RBA board emphasized that future policy decisions will continue to be cautious and strongly driven by incoming data.
Australian Dollar hovers around 0.6500 as bearish bias prevails
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6500 on Thursday. Technical analysis on the daily chart suggests an ongoing bearish bias as the pair is remaining within a descending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still positioned below the 50 level, strengthening the bearish bias.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may target the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.6440. Further declines below the channel would reinforce the bearish bias and prompt the pair to test the four-month low of 0.6414, recorded on August 21, followed by the five-month low of 0.6372.
The AUD/USD pair may test the initial barrier at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6527, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6552. A break above these levels would improve the short- and medium-term price momentum and lead the pair to test the descending channel’s upper boundary around 0.6590. Further advances above the channel would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the pair to explore the region around the 12-month high of 0.6707, recorded on September 17.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.09% | 0.09% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.33% | -0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.16% | -0.02% | 0.06% | -0.28% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.20% | -0.03% | 0.03% | -0.28% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.09% | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.17% | 0.04% | -0.43% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.17% | 0.17% | -0.24% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.17% | -0.34% | -0.20% | |
| NZD | 0.33% | 0.28% | 0.28% | 0.43% | 0.24% | 0.34% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | 0.06% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.13% | -0.02% | 0.20% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.