March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed down -0.12 (-0.78%). March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) on Wednesday closed up +3.30 (+0.76%), and the London market on Friday remained closed as part of the Christmas holiday.
NY sugar prices on Friday ran into some long liquidation pressure after the rally seen earlier this week. Sugar prices rallied earlier this week on Tuesday’s forecast by consulting firm Safras & Mercado that Brazil’s sugar production in 2026/27 will fall -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26. The firm expects Brazil’s exports in 2026/27 to fall -11% y/y to 30 MMT.
Last Thursday, sugar prices fell to 5-week lows amid prospects of higher sugar exports from India, after India’s food secretary said the government may permit additional sugar exports to reduce a domestic supply glut. Last month, India’s food ministry said it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season. India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies.
Signs of a larger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting prices after the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports. Meanwhile, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported on December 15 that Indian 2025-26 sugar production from October 1 to December 15 jumped +28% y/y to 7.83 MMT.
The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil is also bearish for prices. Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT. Unica reported on December 16 that Brazil’s cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT. Also, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 51.12% in 2025/36 from 48.34% in 2024/25.