We are all is trying to gauge if this is the “Peace Dividend” moment or just more of the usual negotiation bluster.
- Trump says they are in the “final stages” of talking and believes both Putin and Zelensky want a deal.
- Promises a “strong” security agreement is coming.
- He’s calling European leaders today and plans to call Putin immediately after his current meeting.
- “I don’t have a deadline,” but the pace suggests he wants this settled soon
The “final stages” comment is the potentially a positive one for the euro. If the market starts to actually believe a ceasefire is imminent, watch for EUR/USD to catch a bid on the hope of lower energy costs and an end to the “war discount” on European growth. I would also expect even more downward pressure on oil prices.
We might also see better risk appetite in general but given the timing of these headlines and that lack of real impacts on global growth, I’m not so sure. Defense companies could also weaken.
The “Putin is very serious about peace” is a line we’ve heard before. The market will need to see more than just a phone call to start pricing in a structural shift in geopolitics. Keep an eye on the headlines—if an in-person meeting with Putin actually gets scheduled “soon,” it could be.
Headlines from Trump:
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Will speak to the European leaders
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We’re in the final stages of talking
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There are economic benefits to Ukraine
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Says Putin is very serious about peace
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Can call Europeans today
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Says security agreement will be strong
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There will be a security agreement
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I don’t have deadline
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Calling Putin after meeting
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Will have a great meeting today
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When asked if he will meet Putin again soon, says ‘depends’
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Think both Ukraine, Russian presidents want to make a deal