Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman is set for a debut at the press conference at 02:00 GMT, following the announcement of the monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
Breman will take questions from the press.
Following its first policy meeting of the year in February, the RBNZ held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%, as widely expected.
Developing story, please refresh the page for updates.
Economic Indicator
RBNZ Press Conference
Following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ)monetary policy decision, the Governor gives a press conference explaining the rationale behind the decision. The comments may influence the volatility of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
This section below was published at 01:00 GMT following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy announcements.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% after concluding the February monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
The decision aligned with the market expectations.
Summary of the RBNZ Monetary Policy Review (MPR)
OCR on hold at 2.25% with inflation expected to fall.
Annual consumers price inflation was slightly above the monetary policy committee’s 1 to 3 percent target band at the end of 2025.
New Zealand’s Reserve Bank OCR unchanged at 2.25%.
Committee will continue to assess incoming data carefully.
As the recovery strengthens and inflation falls sustainably towards the target midpoint, monetary policy settings will gradually normalise.
The economy is at an early stage in its recovery.
If the economy evolves as expected, monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time.
Although residential and business investment is increasing, households remain cautious in their spending.
Risks to the inflation outlook are balanced.
The labour market is stabilising, but unemployment remains elevated.
Inflation is most likely returning to within the committee’s 1 to 3 percent target band in the current quarter.
Minutes of the RBNZ interest rate meeting
Committee reached consensus to hold the ocr at 2.25 percent.
Headline inflation is expected to fall to near the mid-point of the target band.
If the economy evolves as expected, monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time.
As the recovery strengthens and inflation falls sustainably towards the target midpoint, monetary policy settings will gradually normalise.
Committee also considered the risk that policy remains accommodative for too long.
Members noted the risk of inflation remaining more persistent.
Significant spare capacity remains.
One member supported maintaining the OCR at current levels for now but noted that if economic activity recovers as expected, monetary stimulus could begin to be withdrawn somewhat earlier without compromising the economic recovery.
Another member noted that responding too quickly to firms’ pricing intentions could reinforce perceptions of strong demand and encourage firms to align on further price increases.
Members agreed that the monetary policy stance would need to remain accommodative for some time.
RBNZ updated economic forecasts
RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 2.26% in June 2026 (pvs 2.2%).
RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 2.52% in March 2027 (pvs 2.34%).
RBNZ sees TWI NZD at around 68.0% in March 2027 (pvs 66.0%).
RBNZ sees annual CPI 2.1% by March 2027 (pvs 2.2%).
RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 2.62% in June 2027 (pvs 2.45%).
RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 3.0% in March 2029.
NZD/USD reaction to the RBNZ interest rate decision
The New Zealand Dollar attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the RBNZ interest rate decision. The NZD/USD pair currently trades at 0.6026, down 0.34% on the day.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.44% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.05% | 0.39% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.41% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.43% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.04% | 0.05% | 0.39% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.05% | 0.34% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.44% | -0.39% | -0.41% | -0.43% | -0.39% | -0.34% | -0.40% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.00% | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
- This section below was published on February 17 at 20:15 GMT as a preview of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision.
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to hold the key interest rate at 2.25% on Wednesday.
- All eyes will be on the RBNZ’s OCR forecast and Governor Breman’s first press conference.
- The New Zealand Dollar could experience volatile trading on the RBNZ policy announcements.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains on track to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% after concluding its first monetary policy meeting of this year on Wednesday. The decision to keep its benchmark rate steady would follow three consecutive cuts, signaling a pause in the current easing cycle.
The decision is widely expected and will be announced at 01:00 GMT, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), the quarterly inflation and OCR projections. RBNZ Governor Dr. Anna Breman, who is debuting at her first Monetary Policy Committee meeting, is also set to hold her first post-monetary policy meeting press conference at 02:00 GMT.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could see a big reaction if the RBNZ surprises or offers clear hints on the path forward on interest rates.
What to expect from the RBNZ interest rate decision?
The RBNZ is finally expected to pause its interest rate-cutting cycle this week under the new leadership of Governor Breman.
The real question is whether the Kiwi central bank signals an end to the easing cycle amid rising inflation expectations, stabilizing labor market and a gradual economic recovery. Therefore, the updated OCR forecast will be closely scrutinized.
During the press conference following the November policy meeting, then Governor Christian Hawkesby noted that “the central projection is based on cash rate on hold through 2026,” adding that “we’re now seeing economic indicators picking up across all high frequency indicators.”
New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations, seen as the time frame when RBNZ policy action will filter through to prices, ticked up to 2.37% in the first quarter of 2026, against the 2.28% seen in the final quarter (Q4) of last year.
Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate rose to 5.4% in the December 2025 quarter, the highest since the September 2015 quarter, when it was 5.7%, according to data from Stats NZ. However, New Zealand’s Employment Change came in at 0.5% in Q4, up from 0% in Q3, beating the consensus forecast of 0.3%.
Strategists at BBH said: “The RBNZ is expected to bring forward its OCR hike projections because New Zealand inflation is running hot and the job market is improving. The swaps curve implies 50bps of hikes in the next twelve months, which is NZD supportive.”
How will the RBNZ interest rate decision impact the New Zealand Dollar?
The NZD/USD pair is in a bullish consolidative phase below the six-month high of 0.6094 ahead RBNZ event risk. Expectations of divergent monetary policy outlooks between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the RBNZ have played out in favor of the Kiwi, thus far.
The next leg north in the major depends on whether the RBNZ leans toward a hawkish guidance following the expected rates on hold decision. The NZD could also see fresh buying interest on an upward revision to the OCR forecast, which could imply that rate hikes are coming.
On the contrary, if the central bank downplays inflation risks while refraining from offering any clues on the direction of rates, the Kiwi Dollar could witness a steep correction.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for NZD/USD and explains:
“Kiwi bulls seem to be gathering pace for the next push higher. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds comfortably above the midline, while a Golden Cross is in the making. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is on the verge of crossing the 200-day SMA for the upside.”
“The pair needs to take out the 0.6100 barrier on a sustained basis for a fresh uptrend. The next relevant bullish targets align at the 0.6150 psychological level and the 0.6200 round figure. On the downside, strong support is seen at the 0.6000 threshold, below which the February 6 low of 0.5928 will be tested. Failure there opens the door for a deeper pullback toward the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA convergence at around 0.5875,” Dhwani adds.