China’s market and production trends showing resilience – GlobalData

In a display of market resilience, China’s light vehicle (LV) market defied typical seasonal sluggishness to post a strong performance in September 2025. Total sales reached approximately 2.5 million units, reflecting an 11% YoY increase. The expansion was largely fueled by the PV (passenger vehicle – car) segment, which grew by 10% YoY to 2.3 million units.

Complementing this was a standout 23% YoY surge in LCV sales, which amounted to 216k units. On a YTD basis, the market maintained its momentum with a 12% expansion in volumes in January-September compared to the same period in 2024. The LCV segment delivered a strong performance in September, notably within the Light Truck category. While the overall Light Truck market posted a 2.5% YoY increase, a central pillar of this expansion has been the rapid electrification of the Commercial Vehicle sector. The seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate (SAAR) for September was 28.7 million units, remaining at a historically high level and reinforcing the pattern of a weak start, strong middle, and stable end for the year.

In terms of production, China’s LV build reached 3.2 million units in September, marking a solid YoY increase of 15.1%. PVs, which accounted for 90% of total output, rose by 14.7% YoY to 2.9 million units, underscoring strong consumer demand and market resilience. CV production also performed well, climbing by 19.0% YoY to 291k units. Domestic Chinese OEMs produced 2.3 million units—a notable 17.7% YoY uptick—while joint venture OEMs also posted gains of 9.0%. In January-September as a whole, the overall LV market expanded by 12.5% relative to the same period in the previous year.

In September, China’s LV exports reached 611k units, representing a strong YoY increase of 18.2% and a MoM rise of 7.1%. PVs led the expansion, with overseas shipments up by 19.5% YoY to 552k units. CV exports also grew steadily, climbing by 7.0% YoY to 58k units. From January through September, shipments totaled 4.6 million units, up by 12.6% compared to the same period in the previous year. As such, full-year volumes are on track to set a new record, reinforcing China’s role as a key player in global automotive trade.

Trade-in subsidies in the country are being tightened. After first appearing in Sichuan, the lottery system has been implemented in key regions such as Shanghai, effectively making it a de facto national policy for Q4 2025. The shift to a capped, biweekly draw is a deliberate move by the government to control fiscal expenditure amid overwhelming application volumes. According to official data, as of October 22, 2025, applications for subsidies under the national car trade-in program had exceeded 10 million. Given this large demand, the policy adjustments are understandable.

The synchronized rollout of lottery systems across diverse regions signals a coordinated, top-down effort to cap total fiscal expenditure. The announcement of these capped systems likely pulled forward significant demand into early October, contributing to strong September figures. For the remainder of Q4, purchasing behavior may become more volatile, oscillating between application cycles as consumers rush to apply for each biweekly lottery draw. The uncertainty introduced by the lottery could temporarily reduce the conversion of purchase intent for some consumers who can no longer rely on receiving the subsidy. This adds a new layer of complexity to the purchasing journey. While Shanghai and Sichuan are leading indicators, we expect other provinces facing similar budget and demand pressures to follow suit promptly. The timeline for these regional rollouts will be a critical variable affecting the national sales trajectory.

From a production perspective, the recent Nexperia incident demonstrates a retreat from globalization, with geopolitical factors and tariff barriers becoming the normal constraints on stable supply. The disruption stems from a geopolitical dispute. In late September, the Dutch government took control of Nexperia, a chipmaker headquartered in the Netherlands but fully owned by China’s Wingtech. In response, China imposed export controls on Nexperia’s products manufactured in its Chinese facilities, which account for about 70% of its total output.

We believe that the Nexperia incident will have limited short-term direct impact on Chinese automakers; they may even gain market opportunities due to supply difficulties faced by overseas competitors. However, in the long run it will serve as a wake-up call, accelerating domestic substitution and self-reliance in core components of China’s automotive supply chain, such as chips. We expect Chinese automakers to address supply-chain weaknesses and collaborate more closely with domestic chip manufacturers to build a more resilient industrial chain.

This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.

“China’s market and production trends showing resilience – GlobalData” was originally created and published by Just Auto, a GlobalData owned brand.

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