Dual central bank interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday top the week’s calendar, with the BoC expected to hold rates, while a third consecutive 25 basis point cut from the Fed looks highly likely, RBC’s economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan report.
Trade data key for Canada ahead of rate decision
“Our base case forecast a month ago did not assume a December cut from the Fed, given inflation in the U.S. remains above the central bank’s 2% target, and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the last meeting about cautiously proceeding in a foggy environment. However, with an unusually divided FOMC committee, next week’s decision was always going to be a very close call. Fed communication over the last few weeks has also been leaning in the direction of a cut. With some softer data during the blackout, we doubt the hawks will put up a major fight.”
“A hold by the BoC in comparison should be relatively uncontroversial. After October’s rate cut, policymakers signaled that “the current policy rate is about the right level” to deliver low, steady inflation while supporting growth through uncertainty. Delayed September Canadian trade data next week would need to show a 3.4% increase in merchandize export volume from August, and a 3.1% decrease in goods import volume in order to match the details in the third quarter GDP data from last week.”
“More important still are the trade details from U.S. census bureau on whether CUSMA exemptions have continued to hold up to support Canadian exports to the U.S. in September.”