Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone near a one-week low through the early European session on Tuesday, with bears awaiting a break below the $4,000 psychological mark before positioning for further losses. A slew of influential FOMC members showed little conviction for reducing borrowing costs, forcing traders to pare their bets for another rate cut in December. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor that continues to exert downward pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.
Despite less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on the previous day’s positive move amid concerns about the weakening economic momentum on the back of the longest-ever US government shutdown. This, along with a broadly weaker risk tone, offers some support to the safe-haven Gold. Moreover, traders might opt to wait for the FOMC Minutes and the delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report this week for a fresh directional impetus.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold continues to be undermined by less dovish Fed expectations
- The longest-ever US government shutdown led to an absence of official economic data and dampened expectations for another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Moreover, several Fed officials recently signaled caution on further policy easing.
- Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday that upside risks to inflation have declined somewhat and the current policy rate is somewhat restrictive. Jefferson, however, added that the central bank needs to proceed slowly as monetary policy approaches the neutral rate.
- According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability for a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut in December has now fallen below 50%. This, in turn, has been a key factor that continues to drive flows away from the non-yielding Gold for the fourth consecutive day on Tuesday.
- Meanwhile, investors remain worried about the impact of the prolonged US government closure on the economy, which fails to assist the US Dollar in building on the previous day’s gains. This might hold back the XAU/USD bears from placing aggressive bets and help limit losses.
- The reopening of the US government shifts the market focus back to the release of delayed economic data, including the key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday. Apart from this, the FOMC Minutes could offer cues about the rate-cut path and influence the commodity.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said that its forces have occupied strongholds in Orestopol in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Moreover, a Russian attack forced a Romanian border village to evacuate. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and could support the safe-haven precious metal.
Gold bears now await sustained break and acceptance below the $4,000 psychological mark
The XAU/USD pair recently failed to move back above the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The subsequent fall favors bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the $4,000 mark will reaffirm the negative bias and make the commodity vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $3,931 intermediate support en route to the $3,900 mark and late October swing low, around the $3,886 region.
On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt might now confront an immediate strong barrier near the $4,053-4,055 region. However, a sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the Gold price back to the 200-hour EMA, currently pegged just below the $4,100 round figure. Some follow-through buying will suggest that the recent slide witnessed over the past week or so, from the vicinity of mid-$4,200s, has run its course and pave the way for additional gains.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.