Forget all the recession chatter. Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon feels the economic backdrop for 2026 looks strong.
In a recent CNBC interview, the veteran banker feels the macro setup is “quite good,” pointing to robust fiscal support, incredible AI-driven capital investment, and a more conducive business environment.
Moreover, Solomon said strategic activity is picking up at an impressive pace, with businesses imagining big deals again. IPO discussions are heating up nicely, while some offerings, he suggests, could be unprecedented in size.
Clearly, that’s a big shift in tone from the negative chatter we’ve seen about the economy lately.
According to Moynihan, BofA’s data showed that January activity ran nearly 5% above last year, as spending continues to climb across various income brackets.
Taken together, the message from Wall Street’s top floor is that despite the uneven growth, it’s still very much alive.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says the macro setup for 2026 is “quite good,” citing fiscal stimulus and AI investment.Photo by Nicolò Campo on Getty Images ·Photo by Nicolò Campo on Getty Images
The big banks are coming off a power-packed earnings stretch.
Industry bellwethers such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and peers have, for the most part, shown that they continue to keep fees ticking up, protect margins, and efficiently manage credit risk despite a testy economy.
That’s indicative of healthy pipelines and client activity that have held up a lot better than the headlines currently suggest.
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Goldman’s latest quarterly report is a perfect example.
Put together, the core machine looked solid, and a temporary accounting swing made the top-line figure look a lot softer than it really was.
EPS:$14.01 versus $11.65 expected (beat); up from $11.95 a year ago.
Revenue:$13.5 billion vs $13.9 billion expected (miss); down versus $13.9 billion last year.
Apple Card drag: Platform Solutions revenue swung to -$1.68 billion due to a $2.26 billion markdown tied to the pending Apple Card portfolio sale.
Credit costs: Provision was a +$2.12 billion benefit (reserve release), including a $2.48 billion reserve reduction tied to the Apple Card transfer.
Engines still running: Global Banking & Markets revenue $10.4 billion (+22% year-over-year); investment banking fees $2.58 billion (+25% year-over-year); equities $4.31 billion (+25% year-over-year), while FICC jumped +12% year over year despite a quarter-over-quarter dip. Source: Seeking Alpha
Solomon believes that the U.S. economy has a lot more lift than the “doom” crowd wants to admit at this point, Solomon told CNBC.
He backs it all up with actual growth expectations.
Solomon points to Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius, who projects an impressive 2.9% real growth along with 5% nominal growth, adding that we could potentially see better than that.
Moreover, he connects his macro strength argument to the behavior in capital markets.
Solomon feels we’ve moved into an environment where businesses can once again freely explore strategic moves, reopening that pesky IPO window.
He explicitly states that he expects “more IPOs this year” and even “some very, very large IPOs unprecedented in size.”
The smaller IPOs, though, are still facing considerable headwinds as private capital remains abundant and offers founders a cleaner exit.
The optimism comes with a warning label.
He has “real concern” about deficits, arguing that the bond market has been “benign,” even with the Fed cuts totaling 1%.
Also, if growth doesn’t rise and remain elevated with improvements in deficits, things could get choppy.
The big banks are feeling a lot more confident about deal-making of late.
Their respective pipelines are building, with sponsors looking for exits, and corporate CEOs becoming much more willing to pull the trigger.
CEO Solomon put it bluntly at a UBS financial services conference in Florida, Reuters reported.
JPMorgan’s Troy Rohrbaugh, co-CEO of the Commercial & Investment Bank, struck a similar tone at the conference.
Goldman Sachs topped the list in global mergers and acquisitions, advising on an eye-watering $1.48 trillion worth of transactions, according to Reuters, while pulling in $4.6 billion in fees.
In 2025, banks saw another hot year on the investment side, with Morgan Stanley saying that global merger and acquisitions volume jumped to nearly 40% in 2025, backed by a record 60 deals valued over $10 billion.
And then there’s the fiery IPO market.
U.S. IPO proceeds surged to a whopping $44 billion in 2025, up substantially from $29.6 billion in 2024 and just $19.5 billion in 2023, per Renaissance Capital.
Backing that up, PwC said that so-called “traditional IPOs” raised a massive $33.6 billion in 2025, with a backlog of deals pushing into this year.
So far, it seems that 2026 could be another huge year for IPOs.
Goldman Sachs said U.S. IPO proceeds could potentially quadruple to $160 billion (ranging from $80 billion to $200 billion), per reporting from Reuters, with the IPO count doubling to nearly 120 offerings.
Renaissance Capital, though, projects a more normalized trajectory, at 200 to 230 IPOs in 2026, raising somewhere between $40 billion and $60 billion.
SpaceX: A rumored IPO is in the cards for June, Reuters reports. It’s potentially valued at north of $1.5 trillion, with over $25.6 billion raised, setting a record.
OpenAI: The groundwork is laid for a deal valuing it at $1 trillion (timing discussed in the second half of 2026).
Anthropic: IPO prep is set to begin as early as 2026, with the latest round implied at a nearly $350 billion valuation, Financial Times reported.
Stripe: A tender offer points to a valuation at or above $140 billion, keeping IPO chatter alive in the process, according to Bloomberg.
Databricks: Fresh funding pegged the Big Data player’s valuation at a whopping $134 billion after a $5 billion raise.
