The trade war with China was tough on Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) investors. In April, shares hit a year-to-date low below $87 apiece. Like its fellow Magnificent 7 members, Nvidia struggled due to economic uncertainties about the effects of tariffs, as well as due to Chinese AI innovations. Bears saw Nvidia stock falling further because of bearish pressure from the broader market. Yet, some investors remain optimistic for a sustained rebound, and lately that seems to have been the case. The stock returned to all-time highs as some tariff fears dissipated and macro data improved, and Nvidia became the first $5 trillion market cap company.
Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock continues to recover from the year-to-date low.
With the AI darling now trading near an all-time high, many are wondering where Nvidia stock could go next.
This analysis looks at three scenarios and where Nvidia stock could be in 2030.
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The bearish argument that prevailed on Wall Street early this year is not entirely gone, though. While the AI rally may continue, it remains speculative, whereas the reasons for Nvidia stock’s decline in the spring were genuine. Given challenges such as being effectively locked out of China, Nvidia may still be at a crossroads right now. We do not know for sure where the stock will go next, but with the data on hand, we can speculate. That’s what we are doing here.
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Will Nvidia continue to lead in AI?
1. AI Infrastructure Dominance: Nvidia controls an estimated 80% of the AI accelerator market through its H100/H200 GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem. It is tough for Nvidia customers to switch to another supplier. This has allowed the company to dominate the industry, with customers returning year after year. As such, it is well-positioned to capture growth from the $400 billion AI chip market projected for 2030.
2. Data Center Expansion: Its data center revenue has surged from $4.3 billion in Q1 2023 to over $35.6 billion in Q4 2024. Maintaining leadership here requires continuous innovation in GPU architecture and energy efficiency as AI workloads grow exponentially. So far, Nvidia has managed to do that.
3. Margin Preservation: One of the biggest arguments against Nvidia is that it may not be able to hold on to its massive margins as competitors catch up and become more attractive to Nvidia’s customers. This has not happened yet, and Nvidia has maintained its hold on the market quite well. In turn, this has allowed the company to have industry-leading gross margins at 73% in Q4 FY2025.
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Will it reach new heights or tumble further?
24/7 Wall St. estimates that Nvidia’s stock price in 2030 will be $491 per share in our bull case, $265 in our base case, and $38 in our bear case. That would represent increases of 161.1% and 40.9%, and a decrease of 79.8%, respectively, from current levels. Each of these estimates comes from a specific scenario analysis of Nvidia’s business segments.
Assumptions for our bull case are as follows:
AI growth: Nvidia currently holds about 80% of the AI accelerator market. Analysts project this dominance could continue through Blackwell GPU adoption and CUDA’s software moat. This may allow data center revenue to grow at a 25% CAGR to $351 billion by 2030 vs. $115.2 billion in FY2025. Gross margins could remain above 70% due to limited competition in high-end AI training chips.
Automotive and robotics: A 50% CAGR in automotive revenue to $25 billion by 2030 is achievable if Level 4 autonomy reaches even 15% to 20% penetration.
Software: CUDA is already a big part of Nvidia’s moat, but this could get even better if the AI narrative succeeds in the long run. Nvidia could potentially shift this to a SaaS model once more developers become dependent on it.
All things considered, $491 per share is possible, with around $240 billion in net income if all that revenue materializes and margins hold up. Investors will still have to pay a 50x TTM earnings multiple for the stock. The market cap would be $12 trillion.
The likelihood of this happening is quite low, given the amount of ground Nvidia would have to cover.
Assumptions for our base case are as follows:
AI growth: Data center revenue can grow at 15% CAGR to $230+ billion by 2030. If Nvidia retains a 60% to 65% market share here, it could reach that goal, especially if competitors keep falling behind.
AI narrative success: The AI narrative would still have to succeed for Nvidia to reach our base case price of $241. Otherwise, there would be no growth, and investors would quickly slash the growth premium to a discount.
Nvidia’s valuation for the base case would be $8.9 trillion. We strongly recommend reading this share price forecast for a more detailed analysis of our base case.
You may have noticed the big gap between the base case and the bear case. This is mostly because the bear case assumes that the AI narrative would fail.
If that happens, the result would be catastrophic for Nvidia and its stock. The only reason the shares trade at such a high valuation is that the company is directly linked to AI and its prospects. Without it, it will return to being known as a gaming GPU company with some links to crypto mining.
However, that scenario is unlikely. AI demand is not going to disappear overnight. However, what can happen is that AI development could slow down. As a result, Nvidia would slow down too. It needs continuous orders from hyperscalers and AI startups to maintain its momentum and strong margins. If AI slows down and companies are no longer willing to run massive AI models at a loss, they’re also unlikely to upgrade their GPUs to whatever Nvidia has to offer. This would crush Nvidia’s margins and turn revenue growth red, and investors would no longer pay a growth premium for the stock. $38 for such a scenario is reasonable, if not a bit rich, considering that would still leave Nvidia with a $932 billion valuation.
Regardless, our baseline remains at $241 for 2030.
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