Tesla’s (TSLA) Shanghai factory shipped 90,812 vehicles in September, indicating a 2.8% increase from last year and breaking a two-month decline. The rebound came as the company started delivering its new six-seat Model Y variant, targeting Chinese families in the world’s largest EV market.
September’s numbers look even better when you zoom out. Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries from China hit 241,890 vehicles, the fourth-highest total on record. Sales jumped 9.2% from August alone, including domestic deliveries and exports to Europe and other markets. The EV giant also began its first shipments to India last month.
Globally, Tesla posted record quarterly deliveries as American buyers rushed to lock in federal EV tax credits before they expired at the end of September. That demand surge helped Tesla beat analyst estimates worldwide.
China remains critical for Tesla’s strategy, given that the Shanghai plant serves as a global export hub while competing directly with aggressive local brands. Interestingly, top rival BYD (BYDDY) has just reported its first quarterly sales decline since 2020, indicating that even dominant Chinese players are experiencing market pressure.
Recently, Tesla promised more affordable Model Y and Model 3 versions arriving between December and January in many markets, though no China date exists yet.
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Tesla’s Shanghai factory is firing on all cylinders heading into the fourth quarter. The company’s vice president for China, Tao Lin, confirmed production is ramping up at the company’s largest facility by volume, which is crucial as Q4 typically delivers Tesla’s strongest quarterly numbers, and Shanghai supplies both mainland China and global markets.
September sales hit 71,525 vehicles, the second-highest monthly total this year after March. That represented a 25% jump from August, though sales dipped slightly from last year. Tesla’s market share in China ticked up to 8.66% from 8.33%, driven partly by the new Model YL.
The six-seat Model YL launched in August and started deliveries in September. This longer wheelbase variant lets Tesla compete in China’s growing three-row SUV segment. Wholesale figures for China-made Model Y units jumped 17% to 59,000 in September, which indicates that the new variant is resonating with buyers.
TSLA stock has surged over 95% since hitting a 52-week low in April. The shares are now up 8% for the year after a brutal first quarter. Notably, CEO Elon Musk recently bought $1 billion worth of TSLA stock in the open market, his first purchase since February 2020 and largest ever by value.
Melius Research analyst Rob Wertheimer initiated coverage on TSLA stock with a “Buy” rating and $520 price target, calling Tesla essential for AI exposure. He praised the company’s position at the intersection of automotive and AI, pointing to advantages in autonomous driving technology.
Alternatively, Tesla’s automotive gross margin has fallen to 17.2% in Q2 of 2025 from 28.5% in 2022. Price cuts aimed at stimulating demand have squeezed profitability, as the company faces a multi-quarter sales slump due to aging EV models and fierce competition, especially from China’s BYD.
Tesla has also teased a potential new vehicle reveal with cryptic videos on X, sparking speculation about either the long-promised next-generation Roadster or a mass-market model. A cheaper offering, priced around $25,000 to $30,000, is seen as critical for competing with low-cost Chinese rivals expanding globally. The company reports earnings on Oct. 22, which could provide clarity on whether China’s momentum can offset softening demand elsewhere.
Analysts tracking TSLA stock forecast it to report sales of $94.1 billion in 2025, down 3.6% year-over-year (YoY). Moreover, its adjusted earnings are forecast to narrow from $4.07 per share in 2022 to $1.71 per share in 2025.
However, Wall Street forecasts Tesla’s revenue and earnings per share to rise to $222 billion and $9.50, respectively, in 2029. If Tesla meets these lofty estimates, it could easily double within the next four years.
Out of the 43 analysts covering TSLA stock, 14 recommend “Strong Buy,” two recommend “Moderate Buy,” 17 recommend “Hold,” and 10 recommend “Strong Sell.” The average TSLA stock price target is $345, below the current trading price of $433.
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On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
