XRP (XRP) is on track to repeat gold’s multiyear rally in 2026, according to analyst Steph is Crypto.
Key takeaways:
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XRP is tracking gold’s past breakout structure, supporting $8–$10 targets if the fractal holds.
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Failure to reclaim the 100-week EMA could send XRP back toward the $1.61–$1.97 range.
Gold’s fractal hints at $8-10 XRP price next
The bullish outlook took cues from gold’s recovery in late 2022, which occurred after two years of consolidation inside the $1,620-2,055 area.
In 2020-2022, the precious metal formed the classic five-wave structure of the Elliott Wave Theory, including a descending channel pattern during the wave 3-4 formation, as shown below.
In November 2022, gold broke decisively above its long-term resistance. What followed was a sustained expansion phase, with prices rising by roughly 180% and pushing to record high levels of around $4,550 in December 2025.
Related: Crypto lagged gold, stocks, but 2026 offers chance for ‘catch up’
XRP’s recent price action shows notable similarities to gold’s 2020–2022 consolidation phase.
After spending months within a descending channel (wave 3-4), XRP price surged nearly 30% in the first week of 2026, breaking above that structure and signaling upside momentum for the year ahead.
Steph’s chart showed $8-10 as XRP price targets in 2026, up 230-310% from current levels.
“What stands out is how closely XRP is tracking that same path, just delayed in time,” the analyst wrote, adding:
“Hard assets tend to move first. Higher-beta assets follow. Gold already made its move. XRP is just starting to respond.”
What could invalidate the bullish XRP setup?
XRP’s current recovery also has a resemblance to its 2021–2022 bearish phase. Back then, rising prices paired with a falling relative strength index (RSI) formed a bearish divergence, marking a macro top that led to an 85% correction.
During that downtrend, XRP saw sharp countertrend rallies, often after testing the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA), with some rebounds exceeding 100% gains.
However, these moves failed to reverse the broader trend, as price remained capped by a descending trendline.
In 2026, XRP continued to trade below both the descending trendline and the 100-week EMA, suggesting the bear market may not be fully over.
A decisive reclaim of these levels could open a move toward $3.00 near the 1.618 Fibonacci level, while failure risks a pullback toward the $1.61–$1.97 zone.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.