Key takeaways:
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ZEC is extremely overbought on the charts, risking a correction in the coming weeks.
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Zcash can still rally toward $900–$1,000 if the parabolic advance holds.
Zcash (ZEC) has skyrocketed by around 1,500% in the past two months, surging to $750—its highest level since January 2018—especially following endorsements from prominent crypto figures such as Naval Ravikant and Arthur Hayes.
In particular, Hayes projects ZEC’s price to reach $1,000 in 2025 and $10,000 in the long term. However, technical indicators suggest significant downside risks, and traders should be wary of a substantial price correction.
ZEC is now most overbought on record
Zcash’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) reading reached 94.24 this week, its highest on record.
Historically, ZEC’s price can continue to rally for several weeks after entering the overbought zone above 70, often followed by sharp multimonth corrections ranging from 45% to over 90%.
What makes the current rally unique is its duration. ZEC’s relative strength index, or RSI, has remained above 70 since late September, marking the most extended sustained period of overbought conditions in Zcash history.
Several analysts anticipate Zcash will undergo a sharp correction in the coming days as a result. That includes Altcoin Sherpa, who said it is a “great short” and may suffer a “violent end.”
Trader Edward Morra and DarkSide stated that ZEC’s price may drop to $500 in November from its current prices above $600.
ZEC spot volume metric flashes warning
ZEC’s market activity entered an “overheating” zone, with the most significant red cluster on record, according to CryptoQuant’s Spot Volume Bubble Map.
In 2021-2022, ZEC crashed by over 95% after printing a relatively less severe signal.
Previous overbought corrections on the weekly chart indicate that the ZEC price is approaching its 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA, represented by the green wave).
Related: Truth behind comeback of privacy-focused protocol Zcash in 2025
As of today, the EMA wave is sitting around $230, almost 62% below the current prices.
On the 4-hour chart, ZEC remains within a steep parabolic channel, currently testing a key support confluence formed by the 20-EMA and the lower parabola trendline.
A successful rebound from this zone could reignite bullish momentum, however, and push prices toward the upper range of the pattern, roughly between $900 and $1,000, aligning with Hayes’ aforementioned prediction.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.